September 28, 2026
Orange County
Housing Report
"Many think that the slow housing market and rising rates will cause a crash like the Great Recession, but the data does not back this up."
Prepared by
Jason & Susan Zwolak
The Zwolak Group · First Team Real Estate
01 · Market Snapshot
The numbers at a glance
Source: Reports on Housing · CRMLS · September 28, 2026
01
Active Inventory
4,952
homes · +13 in 2 weeks · vs. 4,576 last year (+8%)
02
Expected Market Time
110
days · up from 101 · vs. 85 last year · highest since April 2020
03
Pending Sales / Demand
1,349
−119 in 2 weeks · −8% · lowest September since 2007
04
Closed Resales (August)
1,755
down 6% from Aug 2025's 1,875 · down 9% from July
05
Sales-to-List Ratio
99.5%
99.72% sellers with equity
06
Median Active List Price
$1.3M
All of Orange County · rates at 7.5%
02 · Hyperlocal Reality
Your neighborhood is not the county average
Every city, zip code, and micro-market in Orange County tells a different story. Newport Beach, Anaheim Hills, and Rancho Santa Margarita can move at entirely different speeds — and the same is true block by block. If you want the true value of your home and a clearer picture of where you stand, you need hyperlocal statistics for your specific area.
"Don't rely on broad OC headlines. Reach out and I will give you the hyperlocal statistics for your exact area — so you can make decisions based on true value, not averages."
Examples from the September 28 report: Fountain Valley at 40 days, Seal Beach at 71 days, Yorba Linda at 91 days, San Juan Capistrano at 117 days, and Tustin at 140 days. Your results depend on your specific price point, condition, and location — and no algorithm can see them.
03 · Active Listing Inventory
Inventory is stuck high — not falling like a typical Autumn
The active listing inventory added 13 homes over the past two weeks to 4,952 — nearly unchanged — after peaking in August. Normally inventory drifts lower through the Autumn Market, but with mortgage rates surging, fewer new pending sales mean more unsuccessful sellers languishing on the market. Expect inventory to stay elevated until the Holiday Market begins in mid-November. Last year there were 4,576 homes (8% fewer), and inventory remains 23% below the pre-COVID 3-year average of 6,400.
Late-September Active Inventory — Year over Year
04 · Then and Now
2008 vs. today — why this slowdown is not a crash
01
Then and now — 2008 vs. today
The Great Recession brought a glut of homes: Orange County inventory climbed to 16,000 in 2006 and nearly 18,000 in 2007 — more than three times today's 4,952. Lending is the opposite of 2008: tight qualifications, an average buyer FICO of 735 (vs. 680), 40% of homeowners with no mortgage, and $11.7 trillion of tappable equity.
02
Rates — not credit — are the culprit
Mortgage rates climbed from 6% in February to 6.75% by August, then jumped to 7.5% today — up three-quarters of a point in just four weeks, the largest monthly rise since 2022. That pushed demand down 8% to 1,349 pending sales, its largest drop of the year and the lowest September reading since 2007.
03
Values will ease slowly — no plunge
A crash needs oversupply, low demand, and sellers who must sell — only low demand exists today. Just 41 foreclosures and short sales closed in all of 2025 (25 through August 2026) versus 13,008 in 2009. With values up 2.8% year over year, expect small monthly dips until mortgage rates fall again.
05 · Expected Market Time
Market time jumps to 110 days
With supply nearly unchanged and demand down 12%, the Expected Market Time rose from 101 to 110 days — its highest reading since April 2020, during the COVID lockdown. Last year it was 85 days and the pre-COVID norm was 86. The gap widened: condominiums and townhomes now take 128 days versus 99 days for detached homes.
Late-September Expected Market Time
Days to Sell by Price Range
Attached vs. Detached — Expected Market Time
115 two weeks ago · 87 last year · 2,231 currently on the market
92 two weeks ago · 84 last year · 2,721 currently on the market
"Not every tremor signals another major earthquake. Today's conditions are dramatically different from those before the Great Recession — and the data does not support a plunge in home prices."
06 · What This Means For You
Every market tells a story. Yours is unique.
If you're selling
Price for the pace of demand
With 4,952 homes competing, rates at 7.5%, and August resales down 6% year over year at 1,755, overpricing is what makes homes languish. There is no glut and very few forced sellers — but with the county at 110 days, only homes priced against the newest comparables are drawing buyers at a healthy pace.
If you're buying
Leverage without a crash discount
Negotiations tilt your way for the rest of the year, and condos offer the most room — 128 days versus 99 for detached. Above $6M the market takes 454 days. Just don't hold out for 2008-style discounts: with few distressed sales and most owners in strong equity positions, values are only easing slowly.
Let's talk
Questions about your home's value or your next move?
Headline numbers paint broad strokes — your home, neighborhood, and timeline have a story of their own. Let's have a real conversation, no pressure.